Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
